During this decade an estimated 120 to 130 million children have been born in the country, putting more pressure on the food grain kitty of the country. Does it mean India is heading for something like a famine?
Fortunately, no. For, it is not a fact that production has not been higher than in 1999-2000 during the subsequent years. However, lower production too has been recorded.
For example, the production during the very next year, 00-01, was 196.8 mt,13 mt less, thanks to 91 per cent rainfall compared to the long period average (LPA).
Rainfall was equally deficient the very next year, 2001. However, thanks to our farmers, production had risen to 212.9 mt that year (2001-02).
Unfortunately, 2002 saw the country face a severe drought, rainfall recording only 81 per cent of the LPA. The production of food grains had plummeted that year (02-03) to 174.8 mt only.
There was welcome relief during the next year (03-04). Because of the 102 per cent of the LPA rainfall, food grain production had registered a huge jump of nearly 40 mt to 213.2 mt. That was the year when there was a political change at the Centre. The NDA regime had ended and the UPA had taken over.
Unfortunately, the UPA regime began with a 13 per cent deficit rainfall from the LPA, with the result that food grain production had gone down by about 15 mt to 198.4 mt. in 04-05.
Although in 05-06, rainfall was 99 per cent of the LPA, food grain production did not rise much during the year. It was only 208.8 mt.
The 09-10 figures are still to see the light of the day although it is feared that the final figure for this year will be about the same as in 99-00, which means food grain production in the country has not made substantial progress during the decade 2000-2010, a monumental failure on the part of the government, which has been singing the tune of the second Green Revolution from almost the first day it had taken office in May, 2004.
The natural question that one may ask the government is: how far is the second Green Revolution from reality?
As soon as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had appointed Mr Sharad Pawar as the Minister of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Affairs, he had been gushingly declaring that a second Green Revolution would be ensured soon. The President of India too had felt this way at a later date. However, there is not even a hint of such a revolution taking place.
One is compelled to compare the situation, in the 1960s when famines were averted by importing wheat from the USA.
Agriculture Minister C. Subramanium had taken the initiative to import high-yielding wheat seed from Mexico in the teeth of opposition from conservative elements raising the bogey of “American agriculture destroying Indian agriculture”.
The import of 18,000 tonnes of seed from Mexico, multiplication at many places in India and distributing the new seeds had made the first Green Revolution possible with the rabi season of 1968.
Another Green Revolution will mean another genetic revolution. There are well-meaning people opposing any genetic manipulation for increasing productivity of seeds of food grains.
With due respect to their sentiments, one has to say that these people are pushing India to the brink of another famine by not accepting new technologies, duly approved by official agencies (in case of Bt Brinjal now).
Last year's drought has been blamed for the loss in production of food grains. But even during such a devastating drought, Punjab and Haryana have retained their level of paddy production through innovative means.
The Centre and the States have not, one avers, made efforts to fight the drought as Punjab and Haryana have done.
They have done so by a very stringent use of available water, which prevented the growth of weeds and pest attacks, saving the crops by only life-saving irrigation. What had prevented the Government of India and the minister Mr Pawar, to get other states replicate these innovative measures?
Will India, thus, limit its production of food grains to a level of only about 230 mt a year and depend permanently on imports in order to feed the growing population? One hopes someone in the government answers this question.
Source: The Tribune, Chandigarh, India.
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