Eminent agriculture scientist and Member of Parliament (Nominated) M.S. Swaminathan, who spearheaded the Green Revolution in the 1960s, says that food and water security will be big casualties of climate change. Speaking to The Tribune on the recent Copenhagen Accord and future of agriculture in India, he is of the opinion that “rather than predicting the future, it is our job to shape it”. Excerpts:
Q: How should we prepare for the rise in temperatures? What are its implications for Punjab, Haryana and Western UP?
A: The Copenhagen Accord recognises the scientific view that increase in global temperature should be below two degree C and agrees to take action to meet this objective with equity as basis. The impact of a two degree C rise in mean temperature can be substantial for India.
Around 50 per cent of India’s currently favourable, high potential, wheat production area may be reclassified as a heat-stressed, lower-potential short-season growing environment by 2050. For each one degree Celsius rise in mean temperature, wheat yield losses in India are likely to be around six million tonnes per year or around $1.3 billion at current prices.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) projects that rainfed wheat yields in South Asia will fall by 44 per cent by 2050 if adaptation measures are not put in place. The incidence and impacts of pests, diseases, and weeds in wheat crops may change.
Q: What techniques are required to deal with the new climatic situation?
A: Adaptation techniques will consist of initiatives like selection of varieties of wheat, rice, potato and other crops that are climate resilient. Considerable genetic variability exists in these crops for tolerance to high temperature. The seed pattern will also change. For example, stem rust may become important in wheat while so far only stripe and leaf rusts have been important.
The seed production in potato will also be affected since with higher temperature, aphid vectors will become important. Sugarcane may benefit from a higher temperature since it is essentially a tropical crop. Milk yield and water table may also go down. Hence, there are serious implications for food and water security.
Reduction of wheat production in Northwest India, Punjab, Haryana and western UP has serious implications for providing wheat in our public distribution system. We should establish a Climate Risk Management Research and Training Centre in each of the 127 agro-climatic zones. These can be virtual centres with capacity for preparing computer simulation models of the impact of different weather probabilities. We should build up seed reserves of alternative crops. Just as grain reserves are important for food security, seed reserves are important for crop security.
Q: What about organic farming and ecological problems?
A: Those who have several farm animals and access to organic manure can take up organic farming which precludes the use of mineral fertilisers and chemical pesticides. Over 80 per cent of our farmers are small farmers having about one hectare of land. They will not have facilities for building up soil fertility entirely through organic manures. Small farmers can take to green agriculture which involves integrated pest management and nutrient supply. Organic farming and green agriculture are pathways to an ever-green revolution.
Q: When can we hope to see agricultural revolution in Eastern India?
A: Eastern India has a large untapped production reservoir. We should introduce a five-pronged strategy involving soil health enhancement, water harvesting and efficient management leading to more crop and income per drop of water, provision of inputs like right quality seeds at the right time; insurance and credit and assured and remunerative marketing. The future of India’s food security lies in accelerating progress in increasing the productivity of farming systems.
Q: What public policy support would you prefer for agriculture in the coming Budget?
A: The Budget should stimulate a small farm management revolution through a technological upgradation of farming so that educated youth are attracted to farming as a profession. We should bring in more area under assured irrigation and for promoting conservation farming in Punjab, Haryana and Western UP.
Q: When can we expect food inflation to come down?
A: We need to ensure the balance between demand and supply situation by following the Rajiv Gandhi approach of technology missions headed by outstanding scientists or practical farmers. We should organise pulses villages in dry farming areas to enhance productivity and profitability.
Source: The Tribune, Chandigarh, India.
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